Post-Election X/Twitter Activity Analysis of Key 2023 Nigerian Presidential Candidates

Introduction/Background

It has been over a year since the citizens went to the polls and Bola Tinubu was declared the winner of the presidential election, and about eight months after the Presidential Tribunal case, in which President Tinubu’s challenged victory, was dissolved on September 6, 2023. Tinubu was confirmed  winner for the by the judiciary. A report conducted in 2023 before the election polls indicated that the Nigerian social media sphere was filled with diverse political discussions by these candidates and their political supporters. The top three candidates from the 2023 Presidential election (as evidenced in the elections result), were reported to be Bola Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, and Peter Obi. The findings showed that the activities of the top three presidential candidates intensified on Facebook and Twitter commencing from the campaign period, which triggered a drastic increase in posts and followership on both social media platforms.

It has been one year since the swearing-in of President Bola Tinubu and just a few months back, the Tinubu-led administration marked its first anniversary in office. On June 12th, 2024, The leading administration also marked its first democracy day, which unveiled the world’s largest Canvas of the President. While Nigerians have been crying about hunger, insecurity, corruption, closure of multinationals, and so on for the past year, and the New York Times Report in June 2024 highlighted that the country is confronting its worst economic crisis, struggling with skyrocketing inflation, a plummeting currency and widespread poverty,  the Tinubu-led administration and its supporters have expressed confidence in its performance, and the positive progress they have achieved starting the first day in which Tinubu indicated he hit the ground running in various areas, including economic growth, infrastructure development, and security.

While some people express nostalgia for Buhari’s presidency, others can only speculate about what would have happened if the alternative had been chosen. This led to the question about the activities of Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar in these trying times. 

Social media has played a significant role in Nigerian politics since the 2011 general elections (Luckscheiter, 2022; Ohaja et al., 2023). Its role has increased grassroots awareness and participation in the electoral process, bringing those in political and government offices to account. For example, Jonathan (2023) revealed that in the 2023 general elections, social media took centre stage major candidates and their affiliates utilised these platforms to share their manifestos, respond to criticisms, and connect directly with the general public. On the other hand,  Nigerian citizens have utilised these platforms during this period to discuss the relevant issues they require answers to mobilise support for their preferred candidates and share political matters around them (Ohaja et al., 2023).

Following the prevailing circumstances facing the country, exploring the discourse on X/Twitter about the top 2023 presidential candidates before and after the first anniversary (this also consists of the June 12th democracy day), became important to ascertain the level of their engagement on political education, democracy and participation. This report, therefore, presents a post-election analysis of their X/Twitter activities for these three significant months.

Figure 1: Twitter Circle ( these are accounts that interact with ATIKU the most within the period) of Atiku Abubakar by Twittercircle.com

More specifically, the aim of this post-election X/Twitter analysis is to:

1. Check the activity status and the theme of their conversations (Are they as active and responsive as before the elections?) 
2. Ascertain whether they still engage citizens in political participation with or without elections (Or was their online participation only a political gimmick?).
3. Evaluate the trend of their posts concerning current happenings in Nigeria (What issues do they lend their voices to, and how has that changed after the elections)
4. Identify who they are engaging now and who is engaging them the most ( what is their engagement metric like before and after the elections). 

Methodology

In addition to being one of the largest social media platforms, X/Twitter’s rapid dissemination of information and its usage of hashtags and trending topics to amplify messages and create a sense of urgency around critical issues exert a more immediate effect on gaining the attention of people, specifically youth’s engagement in political discourse than Facebook. Hence, this report focuses mainly on the post-2023 election X/Twitter activities of the key presidential candidates in Nigeria:  Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP); Atiku Abubakar, the candidate for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP); and Bola Tinubu, the candidate of the ruling party, All Progressives Congress (APC). As indicated by the presidential results declared by INEC.

The report thematically analyses the X/Twitter activities of these prominent individuals, focusing on the period leading up to the first anniversary of the Tinubu-led government on May 29th, 2024, and the month end of the 25th Year Democracy Day marked on June 12th, 2024. This period under study is proposed mainly to examine these candidates’ current activities and conversations.

Expected insights and findings

• Tracking Politicians’ Post-Election Engagement on Twitter

This report examines the Twitter activity of Peter Obi, Atiku Abubakar, and Bola Tinubu by comparing their pre-election analysis by Jonathan (2023) with their post-election behaviour analysis that is to be presented in this study. We aim to identify any significant changes in their online presence. A substantial drop in activity after the election could suggest a campaign-driven approach to social media engagement.

• Shifting Communication Dynamics

Social media has revolutionised political communication, offering unprecedented access for citizens to interact directly with political figures.  Has this level of engagement persisted since the election, or have these figures retracted from online interaction? 

• Opposition Parties and Social Accountability

In a healthy democracy, opposition parties are vital in holding the ruling party accountable. Social media platforms provide powerful tools for this purpose. In Jonathan’s (2023) paper, we observed this dynamic in the lead-up to the election, with opposition parties using social media to challenge the ruling party.  Does this scrutiny continue, or has it waned since the election cycle ended?

Method of Data Collection and Analysis 

The social media posts made by these presidential candidates on X/Twitter are collected based on the selected and justified timelines through Twitter API and Manual collection. The tracked X/Twitter activities of these top presidential candidates were from 4th April 2024 to 30th June 2024. These posts were further categorised following the common themes and conversation style for further analysis. This timeframe covers two significant activities in the county such as the 1st year anniversary of the Tinubu-led government and the 25th Democracy Anniversary of Nigeria

Furthermore, the obtained data was categorised and sorted  in Google spreadsheets and thematically broken down into sub-categories and frequency counts. Additionally, ChatGPT was used for further advanced analysis, and Flourish was adopted for the data visualisation.

Definition of  Themes for Analysis

The following themes emerged from examining each post obtained from the Twitter handles of the three presidential candidates under study. 

1. Opposition Critics/Commentary (OCC): This theme covers opposition parties, groups, or individual posts that are shared to hold the ruling party accountable. Examples include criticising specific policies and calling for a citizen-centric approach to government.
2. Advocacy for Citizen Participation (ACP): This relates to the X/Twitter posts of these candidates under study, which encourage youths to engage in political discourse at the local and national levels.
3. Sectoral commentary (SCC): This covers posts that touch on sectoral issues or policies. For example, posts related to trading issues in critical sectors of the Nigerian economy, such as security, health, education, power, etc.
4. Socio-economic commentary (SEC): Here, we categorise posts that evaluate the ruling party’s policies with respect to unemployment, budget, policies, reforms, and so on.
5. Political commentary (POC): This theme categorization includes posts about political parties’ activities, social event participation, political alignment, etc.
6. Others: Here, we group posts that don’t under the above-defined theme categorization. Most posts here are about birthday shoutouts, sports athlete recognition, condolence messages, congratulatory messages, Event/Public Holiday Remarks, religious tweets, global/local recognition of citizens, press statements, etc.

Presentation of Data Findings

To obtain the aim of this investigation and examine the X/Twitter activities of the presidential candidates of interest, their posts on the platform were collected under the specified and justified timelines and then categorised into themes for further analysis. Recall the aim of the research includes:

1. Check the activity status and the theme of their conversations (Are they as active and responsive as before the elections?) 

Here is a race analysis of the activity status of Atiku, Peter Obi, and Tinubu over the past three months based on the obtained data:

Figure 2: Race Chart of 2023 Presidential Candidates

The race chart above shows that for the three months examined, Aitku had a total post of 80, Peter Obi’s post was 134, and Bola Tinubu was 15. Further observation shows that Peter Obi not only had the highest tweets or posts over the period but his activity was consistent, with peaks in tweet numbers on specific dates such as April 8th, May 11th, and June 20th (Relate this to a situation, why was it so?, what happeneing around that time?). The same comment was received from analysis carried out on ChatGPT , which indicated that Peter Obi had been active before and after the election. On the other hand, Atiku had a moderate activity level, given only 80 tweets in total. His tweet frequency was fairly consistent, with occasional spikes, particularly on dates such as April 10, May 13, and June 25th. Lastly, Tinubu had the lowest number of tweets, with spikes only on June 20th. Hence, his activity status is minimal and sporadic, with only a few days showing tweet activity indicating a focus on specific occasions or essential messages.

In contrast, the pre-election analysis here showed that Atiku had more posts on X/Twitter than Obi and Tinubu. However, Peter Obi was seen to prefer using X/Twitter for political discourse. The responses from ChatGPT assisted analysis  regarding the candidates’ activity status also corroborate these findings. The analysis  showed that Atiku maintained a strong presence with frequent tweets and engaged in debates and discussions with followers and political analysts. His account was a hub for his supporters, who actively participated in amplifying his messages.

Furthermore, the table below breaks down each candidate’s post’s conversation theme, indicating the supposed theme of their conversation. 

Table 1: Theme Categorization of Candidates’ Posts

Generally, from the bar chart visual, the most common theme among the candidates includes posts about birthday shoutouts, sports athlete recognition, condolence messages, congratulatory messages, Event/Public Holiday Remarks, religious tweets, global/local recognition of citizens, press statements, etc. (others). Sectoral commentaries (SCC) from the candidates followed the “others” conversation theme. The least common theme among the candidates was the Advocacy for Citizen Participation theme (ACP).

Additionally, see Peter Obi leading in all conversation themes, with the “others” as his highest posts conversation theme, the second is sectoral commentary (SCC), third socio-economical comments (SEC) with political commentary (POC) being the least of the conversation theme posts made by Obi. ChatGPT’s response before the election shows that Obi’s Twitter activity covered areas such as transparency and accountability, sharing statistics to support his policy proposals and building trust among voters.

This observation is closely followed by Atiku, who led in the “others’ theme, such as his travels and stakeholder meetings, then opposition commentary, political activity participation (POC) posts, sectoral (SCC) and socio-economic (SEC) being the least, with no posts on the “Advocacy for citizen participation” theme (ACP). Meanwhile, we observed that Tinubu was lagging in all identified conversation themes, with no post on the “Advocacy for citizen participation” Theme (ACP). However, he had more posts on the “other” theme, such as his post marking democracy, in which he celebrated the silver anniversary of our journey towards a democratic society on Democracy Day.”

2. Ascertain whether they still engage citizens on online political participation with or without elections (Or was their online participation only a political gimmick?).

As earlier defined, Advocacy for Citizen Participation (ACP) relates to the X/Twitter posts of these candidates that engage and encourage youths and other citizens to engage in political discourse and activities at the local and national levels. From the Theme conversation data evaluated above, it is observed that only Peter Obi actively engaged citizens in political participation during the period covered after the election. While Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu converse on other areas concerning the citizens, for the period investigated, there was no direct engagement of citizens in political participation from these two candidates (see Fig. 3). 

3. Evaluate the trend of their posts concerning current happenings in Nigeria (What issues do they lend their voices to, and how has that changed after the elections)

Concerning the candidates’ activities regarding trending happenings or issues in the country where they lend their voice, we see in the Bar chart below that current happenings are being covered by sectoral issues discourse. Four key sectors were highlighted here from the sectoral commentary theme (SCC): security, education, health, and power. Hence, for the period after the election, we covered that Peter Obi remained consistent in conversing and lending his voice to current issues affecting the identified sectors. However, he lent his voice to matters concerning insecurity, especially those leading to loss of lives, expressing sympathy for such events. Atiku was also consistent in this sector, contributing to the discourse surrounding Nigeria’s current insecurity challenges. 

Examples of posts focused on trending national issues by these candidates on national trending issues include Atiku’s post on the insecurity in the country and how it has led to sad developments such as the murder of Professor Yusuf Saidu, the Deputy Provost of the College of Education in Katsina. Further increasing violence and insecurity.

Moreover, Obi and Atiku actively shared critical posts essential to current affairs. For example, on economic trends, Peter Obi called out the Tinubu-led administration in one of his posts about the Nigerian government’s actions of implementing four national budgets concurrently. He stated clearly that “all available evidence has confirmed that the government is failing to address critical issues of national importance” and that there isn’t any justifiable excuse for such unconscionable behaviour. He insisted that we seek leaders who are frugal and responsible in handling public resources.

Meanwhile, according to ChatGPT’s response about the pre-election activities of these candidates, the Atiku campaign focus was said to have emphasized economic reforms aimed at liberalizing the economy and improving infrastructure, as well as addressing insecurity through better military equipment and strategies. 

Once again, we see Bola Tinubu lagging in lending his voice on X/Twitter on insecurity issues for the period after the elections justified. However, beyond security, Peter Obi is also observed speaking or posting on X/Twitter about other sectors, such as education, health, and power. Before the election, Peter w

4. Identify who they are engaging now and who is engaging them the most ( what is their engagement metric like before and after the elections). 

To determine their engagement metrics, each post’s metric data obtained for the justified period after the election was collated. This includes comments, likes, reports, and impressions garnered. Furthermore, the Twitter circle tool was used multiple times to determine who these candidates were engaging with the most on the platform. Each time, the results showed Atiku Abubakar engaging more persons, followed by Bola Tinubu and Peter Obi. However, regarding the engagement they received from their post, we see Peter Obi leading, followed by Atiku Abubakar and then Bola Tinubu. Although the Twitter circle tool accuracy fluctuates, it gives a rough idea of the people and friends an X/Twitter handle regularly interacts with (like, retweet, mention) on Twitter by generating an image of the handle Twitter circle. 

Figure 5: Twitter Circle of Candidates

More specifically, regarding likes, we see in the Bar chart below that Peter Obi garnered more likes on each conversation theme post made over the period under examination, indicating a highly engaged follower base gaining an average of 212,350 per tweet or post. Atiku Abubakar came second with his tweets, garnering an average of 39,261 likes per tweet. Bola Tinubu had the most minor tweets but maintained a high level of engagement per tweet, with the highest average of 11,777 per tweet likes, suggesting his tweets reached a broader audience per post.

Figure 6: Like Engagement by Themes per Candidate

Regarding reposts, Peter Obi had the highest comments for his posts on X/Twitter, with an average of 8,733 comments per post; the “others” theme had the highest number of comments. This was the theme (others) with the highest comments for Atiku Abubakar. Bola Tinubu, once again, had the least, with an average of 3,173 comments on each post shared. Similarly, he obtained the highest comments on the “others” theme, followed by the socio-economic theme (SEC) and, thirdly, the sectoral commentary theme (SCC). 

Figure 7: Comment Engagement by Themes per Candidate

Similarly, the same observation is made for comments obtained from posts made by Peter Obi, who is also leading in the repost engagement, having an average of 64,836 per post on the social platform; Atiku Abubakar, who had an average of 11,992 per post made, and Bola Tinubu had 8,911 on an average. All three candidates are observed to have garnered more repost engagement on the “other” theme.

Figure 8: Reposts Engagement by Themes per Candidate

Lastly, regarding impressions garnered, Peter Obi is also observed to be leading across the different identified conversation themes, followed by Atiku Abarkar with his tweets, garnering an average of 3,002,806 impressions per tweet. Bola Tinubu had the most minor tweets but maintained a high level of engagement per tweet, with the highest average impressions at 1,411,377, suggesting his tweets reached a broader audience per post. These results show that the higher the post’s activity status, the highest engagement, and the lowest status also obtained the lowest engagement. 

Figure 9: Impression Engagement by Themes per Candidate

In the pre-election analysis here, we saw the build-up of followership of these political candidates on Twitter after the primary election to the month before the 2023 Presidential election. Peter Obi was observed to have led the race with an average monthly increase of over 100,000 new followers. The more followers obtained, the higher the chances Obi also led in engagement metrics.

Discussion of Findings

Firstly, we tracked the post-election engagement on X/Twitter to identify if there had been any change by comparing pre-election and post-election activity. Here, we observed Peter Obi as the most active, followed by Atiku, while there has been a substantial drop in Tinubu’s activity. We obtained 134 tweets from the past three months from Obi in which he is actively contributing to diverse topics, including sectoral commentary on health, Insecurity, education, and power, socio-economic commentary, politics, and even posts critically evaluating the current administration’s action, leading in every conversation across each theme categorisation. An example of the economic issue given was when Peter Obi called out the Tinubu-led administration in one of his posts about actions of the Nigerian government implementing four national budgets concurrently. He stated clearly that there Isn’t any justifiable excuse for such unconscionable behaviour. He insisted that we seek leaders who are frugal and responsible in handling public resources.

We also saw shifts in communication dynamics. Social media has revolutionised political communication, offering unprecedented access for citizens to interact directly with political figures. While Peter Obi and Atiku’s level of engagement has persisted after the election, that of Tinubu is seen to have retracted. However, only Peter Obi actively engages citizens the most, about trending issues and political participation.

Concerning social accountability and opposition parties’ activities after the election, social media was a great tool for this purpose before the election. We observed this dynamic in the lead-up to the election, with opposition parties using social media to challenge the ruling party. The post-analysis also revealed that such scrutiny has continued, as Obi and Atiku frequently have made posts about the current administration policies and the state of things in the country. In comparison, Obi commented more on sectoral trending issues such as Health, education, power, and insecurity. Atiku criticised insecurity and gave more socio-economical comments, condolences, tweets and political event participation. For instance, on the 15th of May, Atiku added his voice via X/Twitter to criticise a move by the Federal Government to rev up economic growth by unlocking 20 trillion Naira from the nation’s pension fund and other funds to finance critical infrastructure projects across the country.

Furthermore, Peter Obi garnered more engagement from people on his X/Twitter posts than Atiku and Tinubu regarding likes, comments, reposts, and even impressions on posts. 

Conclusively, the thematic analysis of tweets from Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Bola Tinubu reveals distinct strategies and focus areas. Atiku emphasizes security, calling for action against violence, instability and socio-economic issues.  He also participated in condolence visits and expressed empathy in times of tragedy, giving political Statements that reflected on political developments and engaging in critiques of the current administration. Obi focuses on sectoral commentary, Providing insights and commentary on specific sectors such as education, economy, and infrastructure,  advocacy and criticizing current policies while advocating for transparency, financial discipline, and good governance, sharing experiences from attending and speaking at various events, and lastly, expressing condolences and empathy in response to tragic events. And Tinubu highlights public engagements, congratulating the achievements of others and making remarks on democratic governance and religious observance. These themes reflect their broader campaign strategies and efforts to connect with different segments of the electorate.

Conclusion

The analysis of Twitter activities from April to June for Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, and Bola Tinubu reveals distinct strategies and engagement levels. Each candidate effectively leverages their social media presence to communicate their messages, engage with their followers, and influence public opinion. ​Hence, it is evident that social media, particularly platforms like X and Twitter, which was crucial in shaping the narrative leading up to the 2023 Presidential election in Nigeria, is also playing a role in these post-election evaluations, as it serves as a vital tool for opposition parties to ensure the ruling party is held accountable, amplify their voices on current topics, build coalitions for future elections, and maintain engagement with their followers. These findings, therefore, inform or could help refine future social media strategies and understanding of the digital footprint of politics in Nigeria.

References

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ChatGPT, (2024). Post-election Analysis: X/Twitter Activity Analysis of Key 2023 Nigerian Presidential Candidates https://chatgpt.com/share/8809abba-296e-47a2-87e4-a2e18840ea82

Jonathan, S. (2023). Use of social media by key candidates of the 2023 Nigerian presidential elections. https://dubawa.org/use-of-social-media-by-key-candidates-of-the-2023-nigerian-presidential-elections/?amp=1 

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