Why This Report Matters
Between December 2025 and February 2026, Northern Nigeria experienced some of its most intense security pressures in recent memory. U.S. airstrikes targeted militant positions in Sokoto on Christmas Day 2025. Two hundred American military advisors arrived in Bauchi in February 2026. Bandits killed between 38 and 50 people in Dutse Dan Ajiya village in Zamfara. At least 46 died in coordinated dawn raids across Niger State. In the first 40 days of 2026 alone, an estimated 1,258 people lost their lives to insecurity across the North-West and North-Central regions. Each of these events triggered something beyond its immediate tragedy: a wave of digital narratives on Facebook, TikTok, and X (formerly Twitter) that reframed the violence, assigned blame, stoked fear, and in some cases, laid the groundwork for further conflict. This report examines 902 social media posts collected during this period to map those narratives — who is spreading them, what they are saying, and what the risks are if they go unchallenged.
