How it started
Russia’s African dreams are nothing new, dating back to the 19th century. In the late 1800s, Russia attempted to join the colonial scramble for Africa, seeking to expand its country and secure resources. However, these efforts were thwarted. Fast forward to today, when Russia’s presence in Africa is making headlines. Russia has been quietly building influence and cooperation on the continent for decades, driven by the nation’s strategic interests. But recently, its focus has intensified, with a surge in diplomatic and economic efforts.
In October 2019, Russia convened its first-ever summit with Africa in Sochi, which was a significant step forward in its aspirations to strengthen its influence on the continent. During the summit, Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, underlined the country’s goals in Africa, emphasising the importance of cooperation and mutual gain. He noted that establishing connections with African countries and regional bodies is a top priority in Russian foreign policy.
Then the COVID-19 pandemic came, temporarily stopping Russia’s momentum in Africa. Meanwhile, some African countries had already started receiving interest from Russian investors.
Moreover, the second summit was scheduled to be held in 2022, but it was later held in July 2023. Despite Russia’s efforts to boost its influence on the continent, the second Russia-Africa summit saw a notable drop in attendance, with fewer than 20 African heads of state participating. This was likely due to concerns over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, 2022. The conflict has had a devastating impact on Africa’s food security, as the continent relies heavily on imports from Russia and Ukraine. Food prices have surged, posing a significant threat to Africa’s food supply. The attendees reflected on concerns over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For this, the Kremlin blamed “outrageous” Western pressure for discouraging some African countries from attending.
A growing concern: Russia, disinformation, and Africa? Let’s delve into it.
In October 2019, Facebook removed dozens of inauthentic coordinated accounts operating in eight African countries as part of a long-term disinformation and influence campaign to further Russian interests.
Again, in February 2022, the X (formerly known as Twitter) account of Olalekan Owonikoko, a Nigerian web designer and development artist, was used to post support for the Russians in the Ukraine attack.
All these accounts were allegedly linked to Buffer. In an official statement released by Buffer on February 26, 2022, they stated that their team discovered unauthorised access to several Buffer accounts, which were then used to spread support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
According to them, “1,552 accounts were accessed; of those, 618 accounts posted unauthorised content, resulting in 766 unauthorised posts. These posts were primarily sent to Twitter (505 posts) and Facebook (233 posts), with a few sent on LinkedIn (28 posts).”
Source: Africa Centre for Strategic Studies
But why is Africa so important?
Africa’s countries make up the largest voting bloc at the United Nations. Thus, Russia is seeking to sway African nations to its side and leverage their significant voting power at the UN to legitimise its actions in Ukraine. Russia’s credibility is waning globally due to the ongoing conflict. As a result of that, Russia is using Africa as an important target for its propaganda.
Secondly, Africa has an abundance of natural resources such as oil and minerals, which pose legal and political challenges to the continent. The country’s resources, such as lithium for batteries and cobalt for gadgets like mobile phones, are becoming more and more important to the country’s economy and security. An article published by PBS reported that Russia has prospered in countries with little government, securing mining agreements through firms it controls. According to an EU Parliament investigation, Russia has gained access to gold and diamonds in the Central African Republic, cobalt in the Congo, gold and oil in Sudan, chromite in Madagascar, platinum and diamonds in Zimbabwe, and uranium in Namibia.
Besides, Russia is making a power play in Africa by using its influence to exploit the continent’s vulnerabilities. It’s building partnerships with local leaders who are in need and eager for support. In return, Russia is asking African countries to help it thumb its nose at Western sanctions, boost its global reputation, tap into lucrative natural resources, share nuclear expertise, and establish a military foothold in strategic regions. By doing so, Russia aims to solidify its position as a global player and challenge Western dominance.
As examined by an analyst, Russia is taking advantage of Africa’s instability to sell weapons and military services to armed groups. Through private military firms like the Wagner Group, Russia supports corrupt leaders and gains access to lucrative deals. Currently, Russia is involved in conflicts in four African countries. This shift has led to a massive increase in Russian arms sales to Africa, from $500 million to over $2 billion annually. In addition, Russia also trains African forces, provides them with weapons, and conducts joint exercises with them.
Russia has systematically sought to undercut democracy in Africa, by normalising authoritarianism as well as creating an entry point for Russian influence.
Additionally, in recent years, the focus on China’s influence in Africa, while certainly warranted, has overshadowed Russia’s growing presence in Africa. Among all others, Putin’s goal in Africa is to disrupt and erode Western influence in Africa.
While China’s influence in Africa has garnered significant attention, Russia’s expanding presence on the continent has flown under the radar. Putin’s primary objective in Africa is to undermine and weaken Western influence, seeking to gain a strategic advantage.
With Russia seeking to expand its military presence, secure energy resources, and bolster its geopolitical clout, Africa is becoming an increasingly important front in the global competition for influence. Although Russia’s ambitions haven’t yet surpassed China’s goals, their overlapping and competing interests create a complex landscape, with both powers striving for influence in the continent’s politics, economies, and resources. As Russia, China, and other global powers compete over Africa’s immense resources, the stage is set for a possible conflict.
References
What to Know About Russia’s Growing Footprint in Africa | Military.com
Russia’s Strategic Goals in Africa – Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Russia’s Growing Footprint in Africa | Council on Foreign Relations (cfr.org)
How Putin Became a Hero on African TV – The New York Times (nytimes.com)
Recommended US Response to Russian Activities in Africa – Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Nigerian social media accounts were targeted in an influence campaign centred on the Ukraine
How Russia is pursuing state capture in Africa | Africa at LSE
