Summary of Analysis
The analysis of 8 months (1 January 2025 and 9 August 2025) of social media data reveals a volatile and contested information landscape ahead of the October 2025 presidential election. The “Coup Rumours / Sahel Spillover” theme emerged as the most potent in terms of velocity and cross-platform spread, peaking sharply in May 2025. In contrast, discourse around “Ouattara’s Fourth Term” and “Opposition Exclusion” generated the highest sustained volume of engagement, primarily concentrated on Facebook and X. A clear narrative lifecycle was frequently observed: narratives were often seeded by influential or anonymous accounts on X, achieved viral, audio-visual traction on TikTok, and were then amplified and debated at scale within public groups and pages on Facebook. Anti-Western and Pan-Africanist narratives, while less tied to specific events, provided a constant, low-level ideological backdrop that influenced all other themes.
