PhotoCredits: The Atlantic Council
Russia’s strategic interests in Africa have evolved significantly since the Cold War era. While it once supported liberation movements across the continent, its current focus lies in gaining diplomatic legitimacy for its actions, particularly the war in Ukraine, securing economic opportunities to mitigate the impact of sanctions, and projecting itself as a global power capable of challenging Western dominance. To achieve these goals, Russia employs a multi-faceted approach, encompassing disinformation and propaganda, military intervention through the Wagner Group, economic partnerships, and exploitation of anti-Western sentiments.
Disinformation and Propaganda: Undermining Democratic Values
Disinformation and propaganda are central to Russia’s strategy in Africa. These tactics aim to shape public opinion, undermine trust in democratic institutions, and create an environment conducive to authoritarian regimes that align with Russia’s interests. Social media platforms, particularly TikTok, have become fertile ground for Russian propaganda, with influencers like the Zimbabwean nationalist Mutapabere actively promoting pro-coup and pro-Russia sentiments. These narratives often romanticise military rule, portraying it as a solution to corruption and instability, and presenting Russia as a benevolent partner offering an alternative to Western influence.
Cross-section of the Mutapabere TikTok account. Encircled is the particular video making the rounds on WhatsApp.
In West Africa, this tactic is evident in Burkina Faso, where pro-Russian and anti-French sentiments have surged on social media platforms, coinciding with a rise in Wagner Group activities. In Mali, similar narratives have gained traction, fuelling support for the military junta and creating a hostile environment for Western-backed initiatives.
State-owned media outlets like RT and Sputnik further amplify pro-Kremlin narratives, often portraying the West as neo-colonialist and exploitative while painting Russia as a defender of African sovereignty. These narratives resonate with some segments of the African population who harbour historical grievances against Western powers, providing fertile ground for Russian propaganda to take root.
The Wagner Group, a private military company with close ties to the Kremlin, serves as another instrument of Russian influence. Wagner mercenaries operate in several African countries, ostensibly providing security services but also engaging in activities that advance Russia’s political and economic agenda. Their presence has been linked to human rights abuses, exploitation of natural resources, and the suppression of dissent, raising concerns about the destabilising impact of Russian military intervention in the region. The Wagner Group’s involvement in disinformation campaigns further amplifies its role in shaping public opinion and undermining democratic values.
In the Central African Republic (CAR), Wagner’s activities have been instrumental in propping up the government and suppressing rebellions, but their presence has also been linked to human rights abuses and the exploitation of the country’s mineral wealth. In Mali, Wagner mercenaries have been deployed to fight jihadist groups, but their involvement has been marred by allegations of indiscriminate killings and other atrocities.
Russia also leverages economic partnerships and exploits anti-Western sentiments to expand its influence in Africa. By offering alternative markets and military cooperation, Russia appeals to African leaders seeking to diversify their partnerships and reduce reliance on Western powers. This approach has been particularly effective in countries facing economic hardship and political instability, where Russia’s promises of support and investment can be alluring. The Kremlin’s strategy also includes securing access to critical resources, such as minerals and energy, which can be used to circumvent sanctions and bolster Russia’s economic resilience.
Photo credits: The Africa Centre for Strategic Studies. Disinformation campaigns seeking to manipulate African information systems have surged nearly fourfold since 2022, triggering destabilizing and antidemocratic consequences.
This strategy is evident in Guinea, where Russia has secured mining concessions and invested in the country’s bauxite industry. In Nigeria, Russia has expressed interest in developing the country’s nuclear energy sector, while in Ghana, it has sought to expand its presence in the gold mining sector.
The Threat to African Democracies and the Path Forward
The cumulative impact of these strategies poses a significant threat to democratic governance in Africa. The spread of disinformation erodes public trust in democratic institutions, while the Wagner Group’s activities undermine stability and security. Economic partnerships and the exploitation of anti-Western sentiments can further entrench authoritarian regimes and hinder democratic progress.
The NDI report highlights four potential scenarios, ranging from an “Emboldened Bear” with high capacity and opportunity to a “Hamstrung Bear” with limited resources and constrained opportunities, illustrating the diverse ways in which Russian influence could manifest in the coming years.
To counter Russia’s influence, a multi-faceted approach is required. Strengthening democratic institutions, promoting media literacy, and supporting independent journalism are crucial steps in empowering citizens to resist manipulation and hold their leaders accountable.
In West Africa, efforts to counter disinformation and promote media literacy are underway in countries like Senegal and Ghana, where civil society organizations like the CJID are working to educate the public about the dangers of fake news and propaganda. In Nigeria, initiatives are being undertaken to strengthen the capacity of journalists to report accurately and independently on issues related to Russian influence.
International cooperation is also essential, with Western nations and multilateral organizations providing financial and technical assistance to bolster African countries’ resilience to Russian influence. This includes supporting fact-checking initiatives, civic education programs, and independent media outlets that can provide accurate and reliable information to the public.
A roundup
Russia’s expanding influence in Africa poses a significant challenge to democratic governance across the continent. Understanding the complex and evolving nature of this influence is crucial for developing effective countermeasures. By strengthening democratic institutions, promoting media literacy, and fostering international cooperation, African nations can mitigate the risks posed by Russian influence and chart their path towards a more democratic and prosperous future. The international community must also recognize the diverse nature of Russian influence, as outlined in the NDI report’s scenarios, and tailor their responses accordingly to effectively address this multifaceted challenge.
